Climate change is happening ahead of schedule. This suggests that the climate is more sensitive that we thought and the need to act is far more urgent. As a result, we also need to rethink our targets.

Why we need to cut emissions deeper and faster

The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has already passed 390 parts per million (ppm), the highest in at least the last 600,000 years. Pre-industrial levels were about 275 ppm. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere is rising by about 2 parts per million every year and we are seeing increasing evidence of dangerous climate changes, and that they are speeding up around the planet. Scientists now predict that summer Arctic ice may disappear entirely within four years rather than by 2100, as was previously predicted.

As Professor James Hansen of NASA, one of the world’s most pre-eminent climate scientists, wrote recently:

“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm.”

Climate science is constantly updating. The most recent statements by respected groups of climate scientists, including at a recent congress held in Copenhagen, points out that the carbon pollution targets from earlier climate models are now out of date.

We need to stabilise at 325ppm CO2-e

Safe levels of carbon dioxide are now considered by most climate scientists to be significantly lower than at the time Labor’s climate policies were being formulated in 2007 and 2008. The out of date target is “450 parts per million” of atmospheric CO2-e (carbon dioxide equivalent).

LEAN advocates a stablisation target of 325ppm CO2-e based on the latest science, such as the recommendations
from the Copenhagen Climate Congress in March 2009.

We have the ability to avoid catastrophic climate change — if we act fast and if we make substantial changes to our policies and economy. The current Labor target of 60% reduction in emissions by 2050 is not enough.

Australia as a global leader: Carrying our share of the load

As the world’s largest per capita emitter Australia must commit to a greater cut in emissions – at the very least we must commit to the 80 percent emissions reductions called for in the Kyoto Agreement.

The cost for Australia of achieving emissions reductions of 20 percent by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2050 has been estimated at 0.1 percent of GDP annually (Climate Institute 2007).

Developed countries need to make proportionately larger reductions in reaching that target, because we:

• Generated most of the emissions to date;
• Emit much more per capita than developing countries; and
• Have more resources to fight climate change (Pembina 2007).

Some developed states and nations have already committed to strong long-term targets. The UK has already committed to an emissions-cut target of 80 percent on 1990 levels by 2050 and it is likely that other G8 countries will also do so.

And reaping the benefits

Australia, if we took a lead in reducing carbon pollution would be able to access a whole range of opportunities, including:

• Potential $12 trillion global carbon abatement market, for clean technology exports.
• Re-create a manufacturing base with renewable energy technologies.
• Link the new global clean energy economy to the ALP ‘education revolution.’ Australia could become a leader in developing and supplying the cutting-edge new generation of scientists to capitalise on the new global clean energy economy for the 21st century.
• Reduce dependency of foreign oil through alternative fuels and efficiency standards: thereby reducing inflationary petrol-price effects and cost-of living pressures.