Beyond the Headlines: Understanding the North West Shelf Approval
In September 2025, the Environment Minister finalised the approval of the extension of the North West Shelf gas processing facility until 2070, subject to 48 strict conditions, mostly around limiting air pollution that might damage the Murujuga rock art. The protection of the World Heritage site was the only matter the Minister could legally consider. However the facility is also required to reach net zero under the Safeguard Mechanism. Woodside complained that the conditions are too stringent but failed to get them changed.
Some groups are claiming the North West Shelf is a ‘carbon bomb’, based on estimates of the emissions if all the gas it were able to process were then burned between now and 2070. While it is very valid to be concerned about anything that could increase global emissions, this framing overlooks some key facts. Emissions from Australian fossil fuel exports are driven by demand, not supply. As global gas demand reduces (the International Energy Agency projects international gas demand to peak in the 2030s due to investment in zero carbon energy), there will be less demand for Australian gas exports.
One of the key ways Australia can contribute to reducing global emissions and phasing out its fossil fuel exports is through building clean energy alternatives which is exactly what the Government is trying to do with a Future Made In Australia. The Superpower Institute estimates that the clean energy export agenda has the potential to reduce more than twice Australia’s current contribution to global emissions. Additionally, while it is developing this new clean energy export industry, Australia needs to continue to be a reliable supplier of energy for those future markets.
This reflects the Government’s national climate risk assessment, which stresses the need for an “orderly” transition—one that delivers jobs, strengthens communities, and preserves the social licence to drive a complex shift to net zero. We are already seeing how challenging it is to deliver large scale change e.g. offshore wind and transmission lines.
LEAN will continue pressing for greater ambition—such as strengthening the Safeguard Mechanism—while recognising the scale of the task and the extensive work already underway to reorder the economy.
Footnote: The Superpower Institute estimates that Australian green metals and hydrogen exports could cut global emissions by up to 9.6% by 2060. Australia currently contributes ~1.3% of global emissions domestically and ~4% if you include emissions from fossil fuel exports.